La tension ne faiblit pas entre Moscou et Washington, qui redoute une invasion militaire russe en Ukraine. Évincée des discussions par la Russie, l’Union Européenne paye, quant à elle, le prix de ses divisions, estiment certains experts.
Alors que les discussions sur la crise ukrainienne piétinent, les États-Unis ont une nouvelle fois accentué la pression sur Moscou, jeudi 27 janvier, affirmant que la mise en service du gazoduc Nord Stream 2, reliant la Russie à l’Allemagne, serait bloquée en cas d’invasion de l’Ukraine.
« Si la Russie envahit l’Ukraine, d’une manière ou d’une autre, Nord Stream 2 n’ira pas de l’avant », a déclaré la numéro 3 de la diplomatie américaine, Victoria Nuland, devant la presse.
Ces 1 230 kilomètres de tuyaux qui traversent la mer Baltique doivent permettre à Moscou de doubler ses exportations de gaz vers l’Europe.
Si Washington n’a jamais voulu de ce projet, le pipeline, désormais achevé avec la bénédiction de Berlin, suscite également des critiques au sein de l’Union européenne, notamment de la France. Paris redoute que le pipeline soit utilisé par Moscou comme un outil de pression supplémentaire contre l’Ukraine.
Pour Christine Dugoin-Clément, analyste géopolitique pour le think tank CAPE Europe, ces divisions entre européens servent les intérêts russes. “On a une situation de crise et de dissensions au sein de l’Union européenne particulièrement propice pour instaurer un rapport de force” souligne-t-elle, citant l’exemple du dossier Nord Stream 2, mais également de l’afflux de migrants en Pologne depuis la Biélorussie ou bien encore de la crise énergétique. “Tous ces éléments sont utilisables par la Russie pour marquer des points” dans les négociations.
La France, un « junior partner » ?
Alors que Vladimir Poutine a affirmé, à plusieurs reprises, vouloir traiter directement avec Washington sur le dossier ukrainien, Paris entend toujours jouer un rôle dans les négociations. Emmanuel Macron a eu un entretien par téléphone avec le président russe, vendredi, dont rien a filtré. Il doit en faire autant avec le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky dans la soirée.
“La France a l’avantage d’avoir fait partie du format Normandie [de négociations sur le conflit ukrainien dans le Donbass, NDLR] avec l’Allemagne. (…) Mais [pour les discussions actuelles] Moscou n’a pas demandé à ce que l’Union européenne, ni même la France, soit à la table des négociations. Nous ne sommes arrivés qu’en deuxième position avec un statut de ‘junior partner' », analyse Christine Dugoin-Clément.
“Par ailleurs, la Russie est très au fait des agendas politiques des États avec lesquels elle traite et il ne lui a pas échappé que nous allons rentrer en France dans une période de campagne présidentielle, peu propice aux choix stratégiques forts”.
Un affrontement entre superpuissances
En écartant l’Europe, la Russie tente d’accomplir un double objectif, selon la chercheuse : se positionner comme une superpuissance qui « parle d’égal à égal avec les États-Unis » et obtenir de réelles avancées, puisque Moscou « considère que l’Otan dépend principalement de Washington ».
La Russie réclame la fin formelle de l’élargissement de l’Alliance atlantique, notamment à l’Ukraine, et un retour des déploiements militaires occidentaux aux frontières de 1997.
En menaçant d’agir sur le dossier Nord Stream 2, Washington espère, pour sa part, pousser Moscou à « revenir à la table des négociations », malgré son rejet des exigences russes.
Reste à savoir comment Berlin, qui considère ce gazoduc essentiel pour mener à bien sa transition énergétique, apprécie cette stratégie.
« Nous continuons nos conversations très fortes et claires avec nos alliés allemands », a affirmé, jeudi, la diplomate américaine, Victoria Nuland, lors de sa conférence de presse.
Le sujet devrait être au cœur de la prochaine visite du chancelier allemand, Olaf Scholz, à la Maison Blanche, le 7 février.
AFP
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