La Russie est le premier producteur mondial de palladium, suivie de l’Afrique du Sud. L’exclusion progressive des compagnies russes des activités économiques et financières internationales fait donc planer des risques de pénurie pour le marché.
Les prix du palladium ont repris leur ascension mardi 8 mars, après une journée du lundi qui a vu le métal se négocier jusqu’à 3 440,76 $, un niveau jamais atteint dans son histoire. Il a ainsi gagné plus de 30 % entre le 1er et le 7 mars sur le London Platinum and Palladium Market.
Cette dynamique haussière est fortement alimentée par la guerre en Ukraine et les sanctions économiques occidentales qui en résultent pour la Russie. La bourse de Londres a, par exemple, suspendu la négociation des certificats de dépôts (DR) mondiaux du russe Nornickel. Notons que la compagnie minière contribue largement à la place de la Russie comme premier fournisseur mondial de palladium avec 2,5 millions d’onces en 2021, soit environ 45 % de l’offre mondiale.
Le marché s’inquiète alors d’une possible pénurie qui pourrait aggraver les difficultés d’approvisionnement des constructeurs automobiles, car le palladium est utilisé dans les convertisseurs catalytiques servant à réduire la pollution des moteurs à combustion interne.
« Pas d’avion, pas de permis d’exportation/importation, pas de comptes bancaires pour payer ou se faire payer […] sans la fin des sanctions, les prix du palladium resteront élevés », estime Rene Hochreiter, DG du cabinet d’analyses Sieberana Research.
Si les stocks physiques suffisent pour le moment aux consommateurs, l’avenir reste très incertain et un défaut d’approvisionnement venant de Russie mettrait plus de pression sur les autres fournisseurs, notamment l’Afrique du Sud, deuxième producteur mondial. Mais à défaut de combler la demande, la nation-arc-ciel pourrait profiter des prix élevés pour engranger davantage de profits.
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