Moscou a récemment renforcé sa présence militaire à plusieurs endroits stratégiques le long de la frontière ukrainienne, d’après des images satellites publiées jeudi. Plusieurs spécialistes des questions militaires russes expliquent comment on peut interpréter ce renforcement militaire.
“Ces images montrent soit le plus grand bluff de l’histoire militaire moderne soit l’expression de la volonté russe de montrer au monde qu’ils préparent une opération militaire”. Glen Grant, un analyste sénior à la Baltic Security Foundation et spécialiste des questions militaires russes interrogé par France 24, appartient au camp des pessimistes quant à la possibilité d’une guerre avec l’Ukraine.
Il n’est pas seul à trouver que les nouvelles photos satellites publiées, jeudi 10 février, par la société américaine d’imagerie spatiale Maxar “ajoutent des éléments inquiétants à une situation déjà sinistre”, comme le résume le New York Times.
Des troupes russes en mouvement
Ces nouvelles vues du ciel sur le front russo-ukrainien – Maxar en publie régulièrement ces derniers mois – illustrent le déploiement de troupes supplémentaires et d’équipements militaires dans trois régions stratégiques : en Crimée, près du camps d’entraînement de Koursk et en Biélorussie à plusieurs centaine de kilomètres à l’est de la zone où se déroulent des exercices militaires russo-biélorusse depuis jeudi.
La plus importante arrivée de soldats russes est intervenue en Crimée, cette presqu’île au sud de l’Ukraine annexée par la Russie en 2014. Il y a, ainsi, plusieurs centaines de combattants, au moins 500 tentes et des véhicules militaires qui apparaissent dorénavant sur des images satellites de la région au nord de Simferopol, la capitale de la Crimée. Des blindés sont aussi arrivés au nord de la Crimée, près de la ville côtière de Slavne.
Ce déploiement militaire intervient alors qu’une partie de la flotte russe de la Baltique – dont les bateaux d’assaut amphibie – vient d’arriver en Mer Noire. “C’est peut-être une manière supplémentaire de mettre la pression sur Kiev, mais rapatrier ces navires de guerre au sud coûte cher, et les faire arriver en même temps que des nouveaux soldats déployés en Crimée dénote d’une volonté d’être prêt à agir s’il le faut”, précise Glen Grant.
Pour lui, ce regain d’activité militaire au sud doit s’analyser dans un contexte plus large de mouvement des troupes russes le long de la frontière avec l’Ukraine. “Jusqu’à présent, on voyait sur les images satellites des divisions qui restaient stationnées dans des baraquements. Dorénavant, une partie de ces soldats s’est mise en route pour se rapprocher de la frontière. Cela n’annonce pas forcément une attaque imminente, mais ces soldats ne peuvent pas rester indéfiniment sur la route sans rien faire”, estime ce spécialiste de la Baltic security foundation.
Les photos satellites montrent aussi pour la première fois “l’installation d’un hôpital de campagne, ce qui est aussi une manière d’intensifier la pression”, ajoute Tracey German, spécialiste des opérations militaires russes au King’s College de Londres, contactée par France 24. Moscou signale ainsi envisager très concrètement la possibilité de combats et la nécessité de prendre en charge les blessés sur le champ de bataille.
Une présence militaire toujours plus forte en Biélorussie
Des troupes ont aussi été envoyées en renfort à la garnison présente au camp d’entraînement de Koursk. La présence de forces armées russes, et notamment des véhicules blindés, à cet endroit inquiète les observateurs depuis fin décembre 2021. Ce camp se trouve, en effet, en droite ligne au nord de Kharkov, la deuxième plus importante ville d’Ukraine, ce qui en ferait “une cible stratégique” pour les Russes si une guerre venait à éclater, note le New York Times. “Il existe, en effet, une autoroute qui mène de Koursk à Kharkov, ce qui peut faciliter les questions de logistique et d’approvisionnement”, explique Tracey German.
Enfin, Moscou continue à dégarnir son front est en rapatriant toujours plus de soldats de Sibérie vers la Biélorussie. Et, cette fois-ci, la Russie ne s’est pas contentée d’hommes puisque “pour la première fois, on voit apparaître des hélicoptères sur les photos satellites dans une base aérienne près de la ville de Gomel, à 25 km de la frontière avec l’Ukraine”, note CNN.
“Il s’agit d’hélicoptères de combat, qui font office de tanks volants pour l’armée russe”, note Glen Grant. Un choix stratégique car “la frontière entre la Biélorussie et l’Ukraine est difficile à franchir pour les chars traditionnels en raison du terrain”, note Ofer Fridman, spécialiste des questions militaires russes au King’s College de Londres, contacté par France 24. Les marais de Pinsk s’étendent, en effet, le long d’une partie de la frontière entre la Biélorussie et l’Ukraine et “à partir de mars, cette région devient très boueuse, compliquant les déplacements des forces au sol”, rappelle le Washington Post.
Les nouvelles troupes sont arrivées à plus de 300 km “à l’est de la région où la Russie et la Biélorussie mènent des exercices communs depuis jeudi”, note CNN. “C’est comme si Moscou voulait attirer l’attention de l’Occident vers la zone où ces entraînements se déroulent dans l’espoir qu’ils ne regardent pas là où d’autres troupes sont déployées le long de la frontière”, estime Glen Grant.
Appuyer là ou ça fait mal à l’Otan
Mais est-ce que ces nouveaux mouvements de troupes mis en lumière par les photos satellites de Maxar permettent d’en savoir plus sur les intentions russes ? “Si on compare avec les images d’il y a deux mois, il est clair que le tableau général apparaît plus agressif et donne l’impression d’un niveau de préparation russe plus important”, résume Tracey German.
Le fait que les troupes russes sont déployées partout, du sud au nord de la frontière, peut aussi servir à brouiller les cartes, estiment les analystes interrogés par France 24. À l’heure des images satellites et des moyens modernes de renseignement, Moscou ne se faisait guère d’illusion sur sa capacité à masser des troupes secrètement. En multipliant très ouvertement les options pour une éventuelle offensive, l’armée russe peut espérer que les Ukrainiens et leurs alliés ne sauront d’où la Russie va frapper en premier.
Mais cette “sur-militarisation” de la frontière peut, paradoxalement, aussi être un signe qu’il n’y aura pas de combat, suggère Ofer Fridman, du King’s College de Londres. “Moscou peut avoir comme objectif de s’en prendre à l’Ukraine ou à l’Otan. Dans cette deuxième hypothèse, il faut réfléchir à la méthode la plus efficace et rapide pour fragiliser cette institution”, explique-t-il.
Ce ne serait pas, d’après lui, en envahissant l’Ukraine, mais plutôt “en maintenant une tension militaire permanente et toujours forte à la frontière”. Un célèbre joueur d’échecs, Aaron Nimzowitsch, a écrit dans l’un des ouvrages de référence de la théorie échiquéenne (« Mon système ») que “la menace est plus forte que l’exécution”.
En l’occurrence, la présence de plus en plus forte de l’armée russe à la frontière ukrainienne est “une manière de jouer avec les nerfs des pays de l’Otan et les oblige à se positionner”, estime ce spécialiste du King’s College. On a déjà vu que des dissensions entre les positions des différents pays de l’organisation. Les États-Unis et le Royaume-Uni se montrent davantage prêts à soutenir militairement l’Ukraine que l’Allemagne, tandis que la France a tenté un cavalier seul diplomatique. “L’Otan avait déjà des faiblesses avant, et il est possible que Moscou espère tout simplement qu’en maintenant une pression suffisante, l’organisation va finir par craquer”, conclut Ofer Fridman.
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