Une équipe internationale de scientifiques affirme, dans un article publié vendredi, que les précipitations record de 2020 en Chine et les inondations meurtrières qui ont suivi sont en partie dues aux mesures de confinement pour lutter contre le Covid-19.
L’événement a été dramatique, causant la mort de centaines de personnes et obligeant plusieurs millions d’autres à quitter leur foyer. Les précipitations historiques dans l’est de la Chine et les inondations meurtrières subséquentes durant l’été 2020 ont laissé depuis lors les climatologues et météorologues du monde entier perplexes. Des publications entières et pluridisciplinaires ont même été consacrées fin 2021 aux causes possibles de l’événement.
Une nouvelle pierre vient d’être ajoutée à cet édifice grâce à équipe internationale de scientifiques, essentiellement des chercheurs chinois et nord-américains, qui pensent que la solution à ce mystère tient… à la pandémie de Covid-19.
Moins de particules fines, plus de pluie ?
La chute brutale de certains polluants dans l’atmosphère en raison des mesures strictes de confinement et de fermetures d’usines aurait « joué un rôle crucial dans l’augmentation extrême des précipitations durant l’été », assurent-ils dans un article paru dans la revue Nature vendredi 18 février.
« C’est un rapprochement auquel il fallait penser car il est contre-intuitif étant donné que la multiplication des événements météorologiques extrêmes est attribuée à la hausse de la pollution et son effet sur le réchauffement climatique, et pas l’inverse », explique à France 24 Cathy Clerbaux, directrice de recherche au Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (Latmos), qui a étudié l’impact des confinements sur la pollution atmosphérique.
Les précipitations record en Chine constitueraient une sorte d’exception inédite à la règle. L’équipe de scientifiques a d’abord vérifié que ces pluies n’avaient pas d’équivalents historiques dans les bases de données afin de s’assurer que c’est bien une conjonction d’éléments uniques à 2020 qu’il fallait chercher pour comprendre cet été meurtrier.
Une fois ce travail accompli, il fallait se rendre à l’évidence : le seul paramètre nouveau en 2020 qui pourrait fournir la clef de l’énigme – aussi improbable qu’il puisse paraître – est la décision de Pékin de fermer l’économie et confiner le pays afin de lutter contre le Covid-19.
La conséquence atmosphérique de ces confinements est connue, tout particulièrement en Chine où l’horizon habituellement obstrué par la pollution s’est rapidement éclairci. « C’est en Chine et en Inde qu’on a observé la chute la plus brutale et rapide du nombre de particules dans l’atmosphère et des émissions de gaz à effet de serre », rappelle Cathy Clerbaux.
Mais quel rapport avec les pluies torrentielles dans l’est du pays ? Tout viendrait de la concentration de particules fines dans l’atmosphère. « Cela fait longtemps qu’on sait que ces aérosols sont un facteur important dans la formation des nuages et peuvent donc avoir un impact sur le niveau des précipitations », explique Wang Hailong, l’un des coauteurs de l’article et chercheur au Pacific Northwest National Laboratory de Washington, interrogé par le South China Morning Post. La hausse de ces polluants dans l’air a même « déjà été liée par le passé à la diminution constatée des précipitations dans l’est de la Chine », précisent les auteurs de l’étude.
En fait, le confinement en Chine au printemps 2020 a eu un double impact sur le climat : « La baisse des émissions de particules a conduit à un réchauffement de l’atmosphère au-dessus de la terre, tandis que la chute des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (comme le CO2) s’est traduit par un refroidissement au-dessus de la mer », note Cathy Clerbaux.
La lutte contre le Covid-19 a contribué à « un tiers » aux précipitations record
Mais les deux effets ne se sont pas annulés. Au total, l’atmosphère était plus chaude que d’habitude, constatent les auteurs de l’étude. La différence plus marquée entre les températures sur terre et celles en mer « a accru l’instabilité atmosphérique, contribuant à la création de vents au-dessus de la mer qui ont porté l’humidité jusque dans l’est de la Chine », résume Wang Hailong à la BBC.
C’est ainsi que la période des fortes pluies se serait transformée en un épisode de précipitations sans précédent. Les auteurs de l’étude ne prétendent pas que tout est de la faute du confinement et de l’arrêt des usines à travers toute la Chine. En fait, « nous estimons que ce contexte a contribué à un tiers au niveau des précipitations », affirment-ils. D’autres facteurs, déjà évoqués par d’autres chercheurs, comme des vents plus chauds au-dessus de l’océan Indien, ont également pu jouer un rôle.
Mais ce serait le tiers « crucial », ajoute cette équipe de scientifiques. Autrement dit, le confinement et la baisse du nombre de particules fines a agi comme le déclencheur qui a transformé des précipitations déjà traditionnellement fortes à cette époque dans l’est de la Chine en catastrophe naturelle.
« C’est une étude très sérieusement menée », reconnaît Cathy Clerbaux, qui ajoute qu’il n’est toutefois pas exclu que la seule responsable soit une météo capricieuse.
Mais si l’amélioration de la qualité de l’air a réellement joué un rôle dans ces précipitations meurtrières, qu’est-ce que cela implique pour la politique chinoise de lutte contre les émissions polluantes, se demande la BBC. Le pays doit-il s’attendre à des saisons des pluies toujours plus violentes ? « C’est impossible à dire », assure Cathy Clerbaux. Tout semble indiquer que c’est la baisse brutale des émissions qui a provoqué cette alchimie atmosphérique particulière. « Ce serait très différent en cas de baisse maîtrisée liée à une politique de réduction progressive des émissions de gaz à effet de serre », assure Wang Hailong à la BBC. Et puis de toute façon, note Cathy Clerbaux, on est sûrs que l’alternative – ne pas combattre le réchauffement climatique – se traduirait par une multiplication des événements météorologiques extrêmes.
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