Du Nigeria au Malawi, les pays africains souffrent déjà des retombées économiques de l’invasion russe en Ukraine, entre hausses des prix des produits de première nécessité et de ceux du pétrole, faisant craindre une aggravation de la pauvreté dans tout le continent.
À plus de 100 dollars le baril, les cours mondiaux de l’or noir ont atteint au début de la guerre leur plus haut niveau depuis dix ans, augmentant significativement les prix du carburant, notamment au Nigeria, où ils ont doublé.
Trois semaines après le début de la guerre, les coûts grimpent et avec eux, l’inquiétude notamment pour la sécurité alimentaire, car l’Ukraine et la Russie sont d’importants fournisseurs de blé et de céréales pour l’Afrique.
Avec les sanctions contre Moscou, le prix des engrais monte en flèche. Une menace pour les récoltes africaines qui risque de faire grimper encore plus le coût des denrées alimentaires.
« La guerre en Ukraine signifie la faim en Afrique », a déploré dimanche la directrice générale du FMI Kristalina Georgieva.
Pour Julius Adewale, boulanger nigérian, la hausse du prix du carburant est une catastrophe. Comme beaucoup au Nigeria, il dépend des générateurs à essence, car le réseau national ne fournit depuis peu que quelques heures d’électricité par jour.
« Il n’y a plus de courant depuis hier et nous tournons au générateur », se lamente Julius dans sa boulangerie à Lagos, capitale économique. « Le coût de production a considérablement augmenté ».
Le Nigeria, premier producteur de pétrole et première économie d’Afrique, doit importer la majorité de son carburant à cause de ses capacités insuffisantes de raffinage, ce qui rend le marché intérieur vulnérable.
Plusieurs compagnies aériennes locales ont récemment annoncé devoir annuler des vols à cause d’une pénurie de carburant. Et le prix à la pompe a plus que doublé pour atteindre 1,60 euro/litre.
« Je ne sais pas comment on va s’en sortir parce que 70 % des industries dépendent du carburant », a souligné à la presse locale Lanre Popoola, président régional de l’Association des industriels du Nigeria (MAN).
Défis considérables
La guerre en Ukraine va provoquer différentes conséquences économiques selon les pays africains, explique Amaka Anku, analyste au cabinet de conseil Eurasia Group. Elle évoque d’abord l’inflation pour les importateurs de matières premières ou de pétrole, comme le Nigeria qui en plus subventionne le carburant, creusant un peu plus son déficit.
D’autres comme le Ghana, très endetté, devront faire face à des coûts d’emprunt plus élevés, estime Mme Anku.
Toutefois à plus long terme, des pays producteurs de gaz, comme la Tanzanie ou le Nigeria, ou futurs producteurs, comme le Sénégal, pourraient bénéficier de la baisse des importations européennes de gaz russe, affirme Danielle Resnick, de la Brookings Institution.
« Malgré ces possibilités, à court terme, l’invasion de l’Ukraine pourrait poser des difficultés aux ménages africains, au secteur agricole et à la sécurité alimentaire », insiste-t-elle.
Notamment en Éthiopie, où 20 millions de personnes touchées par la sécheresse et un conflit ont besoin d’aide alimentaire.
Le Kenya, troisième économie d’Afrique subsaharienne, importe habituellement un cinquième de ses céréales de Russie et 10 % d’Ukraine, selon les chiffres officiels.
Et déjà, les prix augmentent. Un sac de 50 kg d’engrais coûte désormais 6500 shillings kényans (52 euros) contre 4000 shillings l’année dernière (32 euros).
En Ouganda, les prix du savon, du sucre, du sel, de l’huile de cuisson et du carburant flambent, selon le gouvernement.
« Victimes de la guerre »
« La plupart des produits de base sont produits localement, mais certains ingrédients sont importés et leurs prix sont dictés par les chocs sur les marchés internationaux. » (le ministre ougandais des Finances, David Bahati)
Ritah Kabaku, vendeuse de 41 ans à Kampala, la capitale, explique qu’elle dépense en moyenne 1,25 euro par jour pour la nourriture et les autres produits de première nécessité.
« Mais cela ne suffit plus. Je dépense maintenant plus du double. »
Inquiète de l’inflation alimentée par l’invasion russe en Ukraine, la banque centrale mauricienne a relevé son taux directeur à 2 %, une première depuis 2011.
« Il est regrettable qu’au moment où le ciel se dégage après la COVID-19, d’autres nuages soient apparus », a déclaré le premier ministre mauricien Pravind Kumar Jugnauth lors d’une allocution télévisée.
Au Malawi, les prix du pain et de l’huile de cuisson ont augmenté d’environ 50 %.
« Cette guerre ne nous concerne pas et ce n’est pas juste que nous devions payer un prix aussi élevé », s’insurge Fatsani Phiri en achetant son pain à Lilongwe, la capitale.
« Nous ne pouvons pas toujours être les victimes chaque fois qu’une guerre éclate quelque part dans le monde. »
AFP
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One thing is that one of the most typical incentives for applying your card is a cash-back and also rebate provision. Generally, you’ll have access to 1-5 back with various expenses. Depending on the credit cards, you may get 1 again on most buying, and 5 in return on buying made at convenience stores, gasoline stations, grocery stores as well as ‘member merchants’.
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Some tips i have observed in terms of personal computer memory is that often there are specifications such as SDRAM, DDR and many others, that must match the features of the mother board. If the computer’s motherboard is kind of current while there are no os issues, replacing the memory literally usually takes under a couple of hours. It’s one of several easiest computer system upgrade methods one can imagine. Thanks for spreading your ideas.
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Thanks for giving your ideas. I might also like to mention that video games have been ever evolving. Technology advances and innovative developments have made it simpler to create realistic and interactive games. Most of these entertainment video games were not really sensible when the concept was first being tried out. Just like other forms of electronics, video games way too have had to advance by way of many decades. This is testimony on the fast growth of video games.
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I have noticed that online degree is getting well-liked because getting your degree online has changed into a popular alternative for many people. A huge number of people have not necessarily had a possibility to attend a regular college or university however seek the raised earning possibilities and a better job that a Bachelor Degree gives you. Still some others might have a degree in one training but would wish to pursue one thing they now develop an interest in.
The very crux of your writing whilst appearing reasonable in the beginning, did not settle well with me after some time. Someplace within the paragraphs you actually were able to make me a believer unfortunately only for a short while. I nevertheless have a problem with your leaps in assumptions and one would do well to fill in those breaks. If you actually can accomplish that, I could undoubtedly end up being impressed.
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Out of my observation, shopping for electronics online can for sure be expensive, yet there are some guidelines that you can use to help you get the best products. There are generally ways to locate discount promotions that could help to make one to ge thet best electronics products at the cheapest prices. Thanks for your blog post.
A lot of of what you say is astonishingly accurate and that makes me ponder the reason why I had not looked at this in this light before. This particular piece truly did turn the light on for me as far as this particular subject goes. Nevertheless there is one particular position I am not necessarily too cozy with so while I make an effort to reconcile that with the actual core idea of the position, permit me observe just what all the rest of your subscribers have to point out.Well done.
When I initially commented I clicked the -Notify me when new feedback are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any means you may take away me from that service? Thanks!
I do love the manner in which you have framed this matter plus it really does offer us a lot of fodder for consideration. On the other hand, coming from what precisely I have witnessed, I only hope as other responses pile on that folks remain on point and not start upon a tirade involving the news of the day. All the same, thank you for this excellent point and though I do not really concur with this in totality, I respect your standpoint.
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I have noticed that of all varieties of insurance, health insurance is the most questionable because of the issue between the insurance cover company’s need to remain adrift and the customer’s need to have insurance cover. Insurance companies’ income on health plans are very low, as a result some providers struggle to profit. Thanks for the tips you write about through this site.
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I’ve learned a few important things via your post. I will also like to mention that there is a situation where you will get a loan and never need a co-signer such as a Federal Student Aid Loan. However, if you are getting a loan through a regular banker then you need to be willing to have a co-signer ready to make it easier for you. The lenders will certainly base their own decision on the few variables but the greatest will be your credit standing. There are some loan companies that will additionally look at your work history and decide based on that but in many instances it will hinge on your credit score.
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I have noticed that of all varieties of insurance, medical health insurance is the most debatable because of the conflict between the insurance company’s duty to remain afloat and the client’s need to have insurance policies. Insurance companies’ profits on well being plans are certainly low, so some providers struggle to profit. Thanks for the ideas you write about through this website.
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Thanks for the new stuff you have uncovered in your writing. One thing I’d like to reply to is that FSBO interactions are built after some time. By introducing yourself to the owners the first few days their FSBO is definitely announced, ahead of the masses get started calling on Monday, you generate a good association. By giving them resources, educational products, free reviews, and forms, you become a strong ally. If you take a personal fascination with them and also their scenario, you produce a solid relationship that, on most occasions, pays off once the owners decide to go with an agent they know as well as trust — preferably you.
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I would love to add if you do not currently have an insurance policy or you do not take part in any group insurance, you could well take advantage of seeking the help of a health agent. Self-employed or individuals with medical conditions usually seek the help of the health insurance brokerage service. Thanks for your blog post.
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Yet another issue is that video gaming has become one of the all-time main forms of excitement for people of various age groups. Kids have fun with video games, and adults do, too. The particular XBox 360 is among the favorite gaming systems for folks who love to have hundreds of games available to them, as well as who like to learn live with others all over the world. Thank you for sharing your opinions.
After I initially commented I clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a remark is added I get 4 emails with the same comment. Is there any manner you’ll be able to remove me from that service? Thanks!
One other issue is that if you are in a problem where you will not have a cosigner then you may really want to try to wear out all of your school funding options. You could find many awards and other scholarships or grants that will present you with funds to help with institution expenses. Thx for the post.
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