Guerre en Ukraine – L’Afrique, victime économique et sociale collatérale

Du Nigeria au Malawi, les pays africains souffrent déjà des retombées économiques de l’invasion russe en Ukraine, entre hausses des prix des produits de première nécessité et de ceux du pétrole, faisant craindre une aggravation de la pauvreté dans tout le continent.

À plus de 100 dollars le baril, les cours mondiaux de l’or noir ont atteint au début de la guerre leur plus haut niveau depuis dix ans, augmentant significativement les prix du carburant, notamment au Nigeria, où ils ont doublé.

Trois semaines après le début de la guerre, les coûts grimpent et avec eux, l’inquiétude notamment pour la sécurité alimentaire, car l’Ukraine et la Russie sont d’importants fournisseurs de blé et de céréales pour l’Afrique.

Avec les sanctions contre Moscou, le prix des engrais monte en flèche. Une menace pour les récoltes africaines qui risque de faire grimper encore plus le coût des denrées alimentaires.

« La guerre en Ukraine signifie la faim en Afrique », a déploré dimanche la directrice générale du FMI Kristalina Georgieva.

Pour Julius Adewale, boulanger nigérian, la hausse du prix du carburant est une catastrophe. Comme beaucoup au Nigeria, il dépend des générateurs à essence, car le réseau national ne fournit depuis peu que quelques heures d’électricité par jour.

« Il n’y a plus de courant depuis hier et nous tournons au générateur », se lamente Julius dans sa boulangerie à Lagos, capitale économique. « Le coût de production a considérablement augmenté ».

Le Nigeria, premier producteur de pétrole et première économie d’Afrique, doit importer la majorité de son carburant à cause de ses capacités insuffisantes de raffinage, ce qui rend le marché intérieur vulnérable.

Plusieurs compagnies aériennes locales ont récemment annoncé devoir annuler des vols à cause d’une pénurie de carburant. Et le prix à la pompe a plus que doublé pour atteindre 1,60 euro/litre.

« Je ne sais pas comment on va s’en sortir parce que 70 % des industries dépendent du carburant », a souligné à la presse locale Lanre Popoola, président régional de l’Association des industriels du Nigeria (MAN).

Défis considérables

La guerre en Ukraine va provoquer différentes conséquences économiques selon les pays africains, explique Amaka Anku, analyste au cabinet de conseil Eurasia Group. Elle évoque d’abord l’inflation pour les importateurs de matières premières ou de pétrole, comme le Nigeria qui en plus subventionne le carburant, creusant un peu plus son déficit.

D’autres comme le Ghana, très endetté, devront faire face à des coûts d’emprunt plus élevés, estime Mme Anku.

Toutefois à plus long terme, des pays producteurs de gaz, comme la Tanzanie ou le Nigeria, ou futurs producteurs, comme le Sénégal, pourraient bénéficier de la baisse des importations européennes de gaz russe, affirme Danielle Resnick, de la Brookings Institution.

« Malgré ces possibilités, à court terme, l’invasion de l’Ukraine pourrait poser des difficultés aux ménages africains, au secteur agricole et à la sécurité alimentaire », insiste-t-elle.

Notamment en Éthiopie, où 20 millions de personnes touchées par la sécheresse et un conflit ont besoin d’aide alimentaire.

Le Kenya, troisième économie d’Afrique subsaharienne, importe habituellement un cinquième de ses céréales de Russie et 10 % d’Ukraine, selon les chiffres officiels.

Et déjà, les prix augmentent. Un sac de 50 kg d’engrais coûte désormais 6500 shillings kényans (52 euros) contre 4000 shillings l’année dernière (32 euros).

En Ouganda, les prix du savon, du sucre, du sel, de l’huile de cuisson et du carburant flambent, selon le gouvernement.

« Victimes de la guerre »

« La plupart des produits de base sont produits localement, mais certains ingrédients sont importés et leurs prix sont dictés par les chocs sur les marchés internationaux. » (le ministre ougandais des Finances, David Bahati)

Ritah Kabaku, vendeuse de 41 ans à Kampala, la capitale, explique qu’elle dépense en moyenne 1,25 euro par jour pour la nourriture et les autres produits de première nécessité.
« Mais cela ne suffit plus. Je dépense maintenant plus du double. »

Inquiète de l’inflation alimentée par l’invasion russe en Ukraine, la banque centrale mauricienne a relevé son taux directeur à 2 %, une première depuis 2011.

« Il est regrettable qu’au moment où le ciel se dégage après la COVID-19, d’autres nuages soient apparus », a déclaré le premier ministre mauricien Pravind Kumar Jugnauth lors d’une allocution télévisée.

Au Malawi, les prix du pain et de l’huile de cuisson ont augmenté d’environ 50 %.
« Cette guerre ne nous concerne pas et ce n’est pas juste que nous devions payer un prix aussi élevé », s’insurge Fatsani Phiri en achetant son pain à Lilongwe, la capitale.

« Nous ne pouvons pas toujours être les victimes chaque fois qu’une guerre éclate quelque part dans le monde. »

AFP

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