L’Iran se prépare à une nouvelle élection présidentielle, le 18 juin. Si le rôle du président est faible, le scrutin revêt cette fois une plus grande importance que le simple remplacement de Hassan Rohani. Explications avec Clément Therme, spécialiste du pays.
Les Iraniens éliront le 18 juin prochain leur nouveau président. Le successeur de Hassan Rohani, lequel a été élu à deux reprises en 2013 et en 2017, arrivera au palais Saadabad dans un contexte particulier. Une vague de contestation en novembre 2019 a montré non seulement le ras-le-bol populaire vis-à-vis de la corruption systémique, mais aussi la répression violente dont le régime était capable.
La participation est scrutée après des élections législatives de 2020 qui n’ont pas poussé les Iraniens à se rendre aux urnes. Seuls 43 % des inscrits ont fait le déplacement. Un an plus tard, alors que l’assemblée élue est très majoritairement conservatrice, le camp réformiste, dont fait partie Hassan Rohani, n’a plus le vent en poupe. Les deux favoris de ces élections, Ali Larijani et Ebrahim Raïssi, bien qu’ils appartiennent à des courants différents, sont tous les deux conservateurs.
Au-delà de la succession du président actuel, c’est celle d’Ali Khamenei, Guide suprême de la République islamique d’Iran âgé de 81 ans qui se pose de plus en plus. Le scrutin s’avère donc décisif pour avoir un aperçu de l’avenir du pays.
Entretien avec Clément Therme, spécialiste de l’Iran, chargé de cours à Sciences-Po et chercheur associé à l’institut universel européen de Florence.
Jeune Afrique : Le camp réformiste, aujourd’hui au pouvoir, qui a négocié l’accord de Vienne sur le nucléaire iranien. La sortie des États-Unis de cet accord en 2018 peut-elle compromettre les chances d’élection des réformistes ?
Clément Therme : Il y a aujourd’hui une dynamique de renforcement des plus conservateurs dans l’establishment politique de la République islamique qui sont liés au retrait américain de l’accord. Cependant, il est très clair que cela correspond à l’accélération d’une dynamique déjà existante dans le système politique iranien. Depuis la mort de l’ayatollah Khomeini, fondateur de la République islamique, en 1989, une sorte d’alternance structurelle est établie. Il y a en Iran des cycles de deux mandats où modérés et conservateurs se succèdent. Cycles dont l’utilité est de créer l’illusion d’une opposition interne.
Source: jeuneafrique.com
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